Transactions on Transport Sciences X:X | DOI: 10.5507/tots.2025.015

Why do hard restrictive demand management policies fail to succeed in developing countries? Cultural factors influence the acceptance of policies

Alireza Mahpoura, Saeede Saeedi Sharivarb, Parsa Zamania
a. Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
b. Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Institute for Management and Planning Studies, Tehran, Iran

Urban congestion and air pollution are persistent challenges in developing countries, often driven by high private vehicle dependency. While Transportation Demand Management (TDM) policies aim to mitigate these issues, restrictive measures such as driving bans frequently fail to gain public acceptance. Using the Value-Belief-Norm (VBN) theory, this paper investigates the factors affecting the acceptance of restrictive TDM regulations in Tehran, Iran. A total of 500 questionnaires were distributed to assess the impact of environmental awareness and cultural values on individuals’ transportation choices. The study utilized Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to evaluate short-term (1-week) and medium-term (1-month) policy scenarios. Findings show biospheric and egoistic values, awareness of consequences, personal norms, and vehicle costs significantly influence sustainable travel behavior, particularly medium-term. The results suggest that combining restrictive policies with targeted education and awareness campaigns, economic incentives, and public transit investment may enhance policy acceptance and promote sustainable mobility practices in car-dependent societies.

Keywords: Transportation Demand Management (TDM), Restrictive Policy, Policy Acceptance, VBN Theory, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)

Received: March 12, 2025; Revised: May 28, 2025; Accepted: July 1, 2025; Prepublished online: July 29, 2025 

Share...
Download citation
  • BibTeX (.bib)
  • Bookends (.ris)
  • EasyBib (.ris)
  • EndNote (.enw)
  • EndNote 8 (.xml)
  • ISI WoS (.isi)
  • Medlars (.medlars)
  • Mendeley (.ris)
  • MODS (.xml)
  • Papers (.ris)
  • RefWorks (.txt)
  • RefManager (.ris)
  • RIS (.ris)
  • MS Word (.xml)
  • Zotero (.ris)
    • Open full article

    References

    1. Ahmad, S., & Puppim de Oliveira, J. A. (2016). Determinants of urban mobility in India: Lessons for promoting sustainable and inclusive urban transportation in developing countries. Transport Policy, 50, 106-114. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2016.04.014 Go to original source...
    2. Allard, S. (2023). New city policy would eliminate mandatory parking near transit corridors. Retrieved July 20, 2023 from https://www.axios.com/local/cleveland/2023/07/20/cleveland-mandatory-parking-transit-corridors?utm_source=chatgpt.com
    3. Angin, M., Ali, S., & Yahia, H. (2024). Determining Usage Intention for the Sustainability of Public Transport in Northern Cyprus Using the Theory of Planned Behaviour. Sustainability, 16, 804. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16020804 Go to original source...
    4. Annika, N., & Garvill, J. (2003). Effects of Values, Problem Awareness, and Personal Norm on Willingness to Reduce Personal Car Use. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 23, 339-347. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0272-4944(03)00037-9 Go to original source...
    5. Bagozzi, R. P., Yi, Y., & Phillips, L. W. (1991). Assessing Construct Validity in Organizational Research. Administrative Science Quarterly, 36(3). https://doi.org/10.2307/2393203 Go to original source...
    6. Batur, İ., & Koç, M. (2017). Travel Demand Management (TDM) case study for social behavioral change towards sustainable urban transportation in Istanbul. Cities, 69, 20-35. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2017.05.017 Go to original source...
    7. Beirão, G., & Cabral, J. (2007). Understanding attitudes towards public transport and private car: A qualitative study. Transport Policy, 14, 478-489. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2007.04.009 Go to original source...
    8. Boso, À., Oltra, C., Garrido, J., & López-Asensio, S. (2023). Understanding Public Acceptance of Automobile Restriction Policies: A Qualitative Study in Four Latin American Cities. Society, 60, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12115-023-00867-4 Go to original source...
    9. Bueno Cadena, P., Gomez, J., Peters, J., & Vassallo, J. M. (2017). Understanding the effects of transit benefits on employees´ travel behavior: Evidence from the New York-New Jersey Region. Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice, 99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2017.02.009 Go to original source...
    10. Chin, W. (1998). The Partial Least Squares Approach to SEM chapter. Modern Methods for Business Research.
    11. Cools, M., Brijs, K., Tormans, H., Moons, E., Janssens, D., & Wets, G. (2011). The socio-cognitive links between road pricing acceptability and changes in travel-behavior. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 45, 779-788. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2011.06.006 Go to original source...
    12. de Groot, J., & Steg, L. (2008). Value Orientations to Explain Beliefs Related to Environmental Significant BehaviorHow to Measure Egoistic, Altruistic, and Biospheric Value Orientations. Environment and Behavior - ENVIRON BEHAV, 40, 330-354. https://doi.org/10.1177/0013916506297831 Go to original source...
    13. Denver, A. (2024). Help your employees, help your environment, help your organization. Axios. Retrieved Jul 22, 2024 from https://www.axios.com/local/denver/sponsored/help-your-employees-help-your-environment-help-your-organization?utm_source=chatgpt.com
    14. Diao, M. (2018). Towards sustainable urban transport in Singapore: Policy instruments and mobility trends. Transport Policy, 81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2018.05.005 Go to original source...
    15. Dinh Toan, T., Lam, S. H., Meng, M., & Wong, Y. (2022). Travel demand management policies: A case study of Singapore and transferability potentials for Hanoi. Case Studies on Transport Policy, 11, 100934. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2022.100934 Go to original source...
    16. Dunlap, R., Liere, K. D., Mertig, A., & Jones, R. (2000). Measuring Endorsement of the New Ecological Paradigm: A Revised NEP Scale. Journal of Social Issues, 56, 425-442. Go to original source...
    17. Dyrhauge, H., & Rayner, T. (2023). Transport: evolving EU policy towards a 'hard-to-abate' sector. In (pp. 305-320). https://doi.org/10.4337/9781789906981.00035 Go to original source...
    18. Eriksson, L., Annika, N., & Garvill, J. (2010). Expected car use reduction in response to structural travel demand management measures. Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, 13, 329-342. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2010.06.001 Go to original source...
    19. Eriksson, L., Garvill, J., & Annika, N. (2006). Acceptability of travel demand management measures: The importance of problem awareness, personal norm, freedom, and fairness. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 26, 15-26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2006.05.003 Go to original source...
    20. Eriksson, L., Garvill, J., & Annika, N. (2008). Acceptability of single and combined transport policy measures: The importance of environmental and policy specific beliefs. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 42, 1117-1128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2008.03.006 Go to original source...
    21. Farzin, I., Abbasi, M. and Mahpour, A., (2024). How does the environmental concerns affect the satisfaction of BRT and Metro users? A moderator analysis. Scientia Iranica, 31(19), pp.1842-1856. https://doi.org/10.24200/sci.2023.59391.6213 Go to original source...
    22. Fornell, C. and Bookstein, F.L., 1982. Two structural equation models: LISREL and PLS applied to consumer exit-voice theory. Journal of Marketing research, 19(4), pp.440-452. Go to original source...
    23. Gonzalez, J. N., Gomez, J., & Vassallo, J. M. (2023). Are low emission zones and on-street parking management effective in reducing parking demand for most polluting vehicles and promoting greener ones? Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice, 176, 103813. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2023.103813 Go to original source...
    24. Guerra, E., & Millard-Ball, A. (2017). Getting around a license-plate ban: Behavioral responses to Mexico City's driving restriction. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 55, 113-126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2017.06.027 Go to original source...
    25. Habibian, M., & Kermanshah, M. (2011). Exploring the role of transportation demand management policies' interactions. Scientia Iranica, 18, 1037-1044. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scient.2011.09.005 Go to original source...
    26. Habibian, M., & Kermanshah, M. (2013). Car commuters' mode change in response to TDM measures: Experimental design approach considering two-way interactions. Iranian Journal of Science and Technology Transaction B: Engineering, 37, 479-490.
    27. Habibian, M., & Rezaei, A. (2017). Accounting for systematic heterogeneity across car commuters in response to multiple TDM policies: case study of Tehran. Transportation, 44. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-015-9672-4 Go to original source...
    28. Haery, S., Mahpour, A. and Vafaeinejad, A., (2024). Forecasting urban travel demand with geo-AI: a combination of GIS and machine learning techniques utilizing uber data in New York City. Environmental Earth Sciences, 83(20), p. 594. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-11900-y Go to original source...
    29. Hair, J. F., Jr, H. G. T. M., Ringle, C. M., & Sarstedt, M. (2021). A primer on partial least squares structural equations modeling (PLS-SEM). Sage Publications. Journal of Tourism Research, 6(2). Go to original source...
    30. Hair, J. F., Ringle, C. M., & Sarstedt, M. (2011). PLS-SEM: Indeed a silver bullet Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice, 19, 139-151. Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice, 19(2). Go to original source...
    31. He, Y., Sun, Y., Zhao, Z., Chen, M., Waygood, E. O. D., & Shu, Y. (2024). Impact of social-psychological factors on low-carbon travel intention: Merging theory of planned behavior and value-belief-norm theory. Heliyon, 10(6), e28161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28161 Go to original source...
    32. Henseler, J., Ringle, C. M., & Sarstedt, M. (2012). Using partial least squares path modeling in advertising research: Basic concepts and recent issues. In Handbook of Research on International Advertising. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781781001042.00023 Go to original source...
    33. Hiratsuka, J., Perlaviciute, G., & Steg, L. (2018). Testing VBN theory in Japan: Relationships between values, beliefs, norms, and acceptability and expected effects of a car pricing policy. Transportation Research Part F Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, 53, 74-83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2017.12.015 Go to original source...
    34. Hrelja, R., & Rye, T. (2022). Decreasing the share of travel by car. Strategies for implementing 'push' or 'pull' measures in a traditionally car-centric transport and land use planning. International Journal of Sustainable Transportation. https://doi.org/10.1080/15568318.2022.2051098 Go to original source...
    35. Iąoraitė, M. (2010). Evaluating efficiency and effectiveness in transport organizations. Transport, 20, 240-247. https://doi.org/10.1080/16484142.2005.9638027 Go to original source...
    36. Jain, N., Kaushik, K., & Choudhary, P. (2021). Sustainable Perspectives on Transportation: Public Perception towards Odd-Even Restrictive Driving Policy in Delhi, India. Transport Policy, 106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.03.020 Go to original source...
    37. Jakovcevic, A., & Steg, L. (2013). Sustainable transportation in Argentina: Values, beliefs, norms and car use reduction. Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, 20, 70-79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2013.05.005 Go to original source...
    38. Khalilikhah, M., Habibian, M., & Heaslip, K. (2016). Acceptability of Increasing Petrol Price as a TDM Pricing Policy: A Case Study in Tehran. Transport Policy, 45, 136-144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2015.09.014 Go to original source...
    39. Kim, M. J., Hall, C., Chung, N., Kim, M., & Sohn, K. (2023). What Makes Tourists Use Public Transport? Value-Belief-Norm Theory, Environmental, Social, and Governance Factors, and the Sustainable Development Goals. Journal of Travel Research, 63, 1426-1441. https://doi.org/10.1177/00472875231191708 Go to original source...
    40. Li, R. and Guo, M., 2016. Effects of odd-even traffic restriction on travel speed and traffic volume: Evidence from Beijing Olympic Games. Journal of traffic and transportation engineering (English edition), 3(1), pp.71-81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtte.2016.01.002 Go to original source...
    41. Li, S., Xing, J., Yang, L., & Zhang, F. (2020). Transportation and the Environment in Developing Countries. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 12. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-103119-104510 Go to original source...
    42. Lind, H., Nordfjærn, T., Jørgensen, S., & Rundmo, T. (2015). The value-belief-norm theory, personal norms and sustainable travel mode choice in urban areas. Journal of Environmental Psychology, in press. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2015.06.001 Go to original source...
    43. Litman, T. (2013). Transportation and public health. Annu Rev Public Health, 34, 217-233. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031912-114502 Go to original source...
    44. Mahpour, A., Farzin, I., Izadi, A.R. and Ashouri, S., (2023). Expanding the VBN theory on succeeding the transportation demand management policies. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 21, p.100903. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2023.100903 Go to original source...
    45. Mahpour, A.R. and Saeedi Shahrivar, S., (2022). Investigating the role of latent individual components in the acceptance of demand management policies: Case study of Tehran odd-even policy. Sharif Journal of Civil Engineering, 38(3.1), pp.41-52. https://doi.org/10.24200/j30.2022.59669.3066 Go to original source...
    46. Mahpour, A., Amiri, A.M., Deldar, M., Saffarzadeh, M. and Nazifi, A., (2018). A heuristic method to determine traffic bottlenecks based on ant colony: a case study of Iran. Case Studies on Transport Policy, 6(4), pp.716-721. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2018.09.001 Go to original source...
    47. Mamdohi, A.R., Mahpour, A., Hossein Rashidi, T. and Sfar Zadeh, M., (2016). Identification of effective personal factors in attracting customers to shopping centers-case of Tehran. Journal of Business Management, 8(3), pp.681-698. https://doi.org/10.22059/jibm.2016.60633 Go to original source...
    48. Mamdoohi, A., Axhausen, K.W., Mahpour, A., Rashidi, T.H. and Saffarzadeh, M., (2016). Are there latent effects in shopping destination choice?: survey methods and response behavior. In 16th Swiss Transport Research Conference (STRC 2016). Swiss Transport Research Conference (STRC).
    49. Mamdoohi, A.R., Yousefikia, M. and Mahpour, A.R., 2013. Increasing Minimum Spanning Tree estimation precision; implemented for Tehran province. Advances in Civil Engineering & Building Materials, pp.879-882. Go to original source...
    50. Mahpour, A., Forsi, H., Vafaeenejad, A. and Saffarzadeh, A., (2022). An improvement on the topological map matching algorithm at junctions: a heuristic approach. International journal of transportation engineering, 9(4), pp.749-761. https://doi.org/10.22119/ijte.2022.311310.1594 Go to original source...
    51. Mehdizadeh, M., Fallah Z, M., & Nordfjærn, T. (2019). Mono- and multimodal green transport use on university trips during winter and summer: Hybrid choice models on the norm-activation theory. Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice, In press. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2019.09.046 Go to original source...
    52. Milenković, M., Glavić, D., & Maričić, M. (2019). Determining factors affecting congestion pricing acceptability. Transport Policy, 82, 58-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2019.08.004 Go to original source...
    53. Moeinaddini, A., & Habibian, M. (2024). Acceptability of transportation demand management policy packages considering interactions and socio-economic heterogeneity. Research in Transportation Economics, 103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2023.101374 Go to original source...
    54. Pamidimukkala, A., Kermanshachi, S., Michael Rosenberger, J., & Hladik, G. (2025). Utilizing Extended Theory of Planned Behavior to Evaluate Consumers' Adoption Intention of Electric Vehicles. Green Energy and Intelligent Transportation, 100258. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geits.2025.100258 Go to original source...
    55. Queiroz, M., Celeste, P., & Moura, F. (2020). School commuting: the influence of soft and hard factors to shift to public transport. Transportation Research Procedia, 47, 625-632. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2020.03.140 Go to original source...
    56. Schwartz, S.H. (1992). Universals in the content and structure of values: Theoretical advances and empirical tests in 20 countries. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology 25, 1-65. Go to original source...
    57. Steg, L., Bolderdijk, J., Keizer, K., & Perlaviciute, G. (2014). An Integrated Framework for Encouraging Pro-Environmental Behaviour: The Role of Values, Situational Factors and Goals. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 38, 104-115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2014.01.002 Go to original source...
    58. Steg, L., Perlaviciute, G., Van der Werff, E., & Lurvink, J. (2012). The Significance of Hedonic Values for Environmentally Relevant Attitudes, Preferences, and Actions. Environment and Behavior, 46. https://doi.org/10.1177/0013916512454730 Go to original source...
    59. Steg, L., & Vlek, C. (1997). The role of problem awareness in willingness-to-change car use and in evaluating relevant policy measures. The role of problem awareness in willingness-to-change car use and in evaluating relevant policy measures, 465-475.
    60. Tayarani, A., Mahpour, A., & Javanshir, H. (2020a). Modeling Share Change of Non-Public Vehicles and the Rate of Emissions due to the Implementation of Demand Management Policies (written in Farsi). 17, 203-216.
    61. Tayarani, A., Mahpour, A., Javanshir, H., & saffarzadeh, m. (2020b). Technical Evaluation and Comparison of Odd-Even Traffic Restriction with District Pricing Policy in Reduction of Emissions Generated from Transportation Vehicles (Case Study: Selected Area of Tehran City) (written in Farsi). 17, 81-96.
    62. Temme, D., Paulssen, M., & Dannewald, T. (2008). Incorporating Latent Variables into Discrete Choice Models - A Simultaneous Estimation Approach Using SEM Software. BuR : Business Research, 1. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03343535 Go to original source...
    63. Unal, A., Steg, L., & Granskaya, J. (2019). "To support or not to support, that is the question". Testing the VBN theory in predicting support for car use reduction policies in Russia. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 119, 73-81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2018.10.042 Go to original source...
    64. Walker, J., & Ben-Akiva, M. (2002). Generalized random utility model. Mathematical Social Sciences, 43, 303-343. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-4896(02)00023-9 Go to original source...
    65. Wang, J., & Wang, X. (2012). Structural Equation Modeling: Applications Using Mplus. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118356258 Go to original source...
    66. WHO, (2016), Air pollution in Tehran: health costs, sources, and policies, Environment and natural resources global practice report, Washington.
    67. Xianglong, S., Feng, S., & Lu, J. (2016). Psychological factors influencing the public acceptability of congestion pricing in China. Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, 41, 104-112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2016.06.015 Go to original source...
    68. Xie, X., Tou, X., & Zhang, L. (2016). Effect analysis of air pollution control in Beijing based on an odd-and-even license plate model. Journal of Cleaner Production, 142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.09.117 Go to original source...
    69. Xu, Y., Zhang, Q., & Zheng, S. (2015). The Rising Demand for Subway After Private Driving Restriction: Evidence from Beijing's Housing Market. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2015.06.004 Go to original source...
    70. Yu, C.-Y., & Zhu, X. (2016). From attitude to action: What shapes attitude toward walking to/from school and how does it influence actual behaviors? Preventive Medicine, 90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ypmed.2016.06.036 Go to original source...

    This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.


    Return